China's job market has had a strong start, with booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and big data talent, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced at a press conference on Saturday. The ministry pledged to provide more support for private and small businesses and to promote youth employment in order to stabilize the job market this year.
Experts are optimistic about China's goal of adding 12 million urban jobs this year. They are calling for more graduates to better embrace the opportunities brought by AI and emerging sectors, as well as for stepped-up efforts to support smaller businesses.
Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Wang Xiaoping said at a press conference on Saturday that China's job market is off to a strong start, with the AI and big data industries showing high demand and rapid growth in healthcare, accommodation and catering, as well as the cultural and tourism sectors.
The trends in the job market reflect China's economic improvement, with the development of new quality productive forces bringing new opportunities, Wang said.
China aims to add more than 12 million urban jobs in 2024, according to the Government Work Report.
Compared with last year's goal of creating "about" 12 million urban jobs, the word "over" showcases the resolve and strength of the government in ensuring stable employment, analysts said.
The adjustment signals that the government is confident in creating more high-quality jobs through deepening reform and opening-up, improving the business environment, and nurturing and expanding new growth drivers, Liu Chunsheng, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Sunday.
China created 12.44 million urban jobs in 2023, and the average surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.2 percent, official data showed.
AI and the digital economy have enormous potential in creating employment, analysts said.
AI-related sectors and the digital economy are creating many high-end jobs in fields such as machine learning, data science, algorithm engineering and smart hardware development. They are also driving the digital transformation of traditional industries, resulting in demand for new job positions, Liu said.
Industries related to new-energy vehicles, semiconductors, 5G communication and applications, healthcare, digital entertainment and social media, smart manufacturing, and green environmental protection technologies are expected to be among the nation's new growth points, Liu added.
As a major part of the job-hunting group, the number of college graduates will reach 11.79 million this year, according to the ministry's data.
"We will strengthen policies and measures to promote youth employment, expand market channels, stabilize the size of public positions, and optimize all-round employment and entrepreneurship guidance services," Wang said.
With the rapid development of AI technology, more and more companies are focusing on and applying AI technology, providing new job opportunities for college graduates, Cong Yi, a professor with Tianjin Administrative Institute, told the Global Times on Sunday.
Cong noted that universities and regional governments attach great importance to building efficient employment channels. Some high schools are strengthening educational content around digital development, such as courses on the digital economy and data analysis, helping students adapt to employment needs.
China's job market is starting to heat up after the Spring Festival break, according to market data.
Among various job positions, AI engineers are offered the highest average salary at 24,127 yuan ($4,533) per month, followed by chip engineers at 22,835 yuan per month, according to data from Zhaopin.com sent to the Global Times.
It showed that smaller companies, a large source of job creation, are experiencing growing demand for staff. Job vacancies at small companies (those with fewer than 100 employees) increased by 7.1 percent in the third week after the Spring Festival from the previous week.
To further expand job opportunities, the ministry said it will provide support to the private economy and small companies that employ a large number of workers. It will also focus on strengthening the cultivation of the digital economy, the silver hair economy and the green economy, all of which are new sectors for economic growth.
Continued support for small and medium-sized enterprises is key to achieving the employment target for 2024, experts said.
"It is crucial to encourage technology-driven enterprises to expand and create more jobs, prioritize the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and guide and support the digital transformation of traditional industries," Liu said.
Why shouldn't people trust The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports on China's economy? Because if they do, then they are likely to fall into a cognitive trap that often leads to wrong judgment, missing out on the opportunity to benefit from China's growth dividends.
It is no secret that Western media outlets have largely lost the ability to objectively assess China's economic performance. The WSJ is a typical case of using sensational headlines to vacillate between the "China collapse" theory and the "China threat" theory.
From August 2023 to early 2024, the WSJ published more than 160 articles with most of them badmouthing the Chinese economy, including "The World Is in for Another China Shock," "China's 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next?" "How China Made a Youth Unemployment Crisis Disappear," "Is China's Economic Predicament as Bad as Japan's? It Could Be Worse," and "China's Economy Is Stuck in a Vicious Cycle."
But is the Chinese economy really as troubled as the WSJ claims? Those who look deeper into these reports will find these arguments are clearly short-sighted and only focus on the negative factors, turning a blind eye to the fact that China's economic growth rate still exceeds many other major economies while pushing forward with its economic transition toward high-quality development.
According to the World Bank's estimates of the growth rates of major economies in 2023, China's economic growth was about 1.5 times that of the US and about 16.5 times that of the eurozone.
When examining its China reports over the longer term, it is not hard to find that the newspaper's coverage of different periods of the Chinese economy revolves around themes like criticizing China's economy over everything.
For example, last month it published an article headlined "In China, Deflation Tightens its Grip," while almost at the same time last year, it claimed that China's economic rebound would push inflation higher and "ripple through global markets."
The perception these WSJ reports leave is that either the Chinese economy is on the brink of collapsing or it is rising so fast that it poses a threat to the world. Both serve the same goal of smearing China's economic performance and weighing on investor confidence.
The fact that the paper speaks for US financial capital and the US government is the reason why it repeatedly tries to mislead the public about the Chinese economy.
Since Western countries believe that China's economic development has moved its "cheese," the publication's stance makes it impossible to provide an objective picture of the Chinese economy.
This is why the WSJ does not mention that the "decoupling" push has created widespread losses for China and the world, and that the Chinese economy is at a critical period of recovery and industrial upgrading, which has the potential to generate more growth momentum for the world.
It only focuses on short-term fluctuations in the Chinese economy, deliberately amplifying the risks and challenges in an attempt to justify the "de-risking" or "decoupling" policy toward China.
But this biased view cannot hide the bright spots in China's economy, which is still on a recovery track with an overall improvement in major macro indicators, massive consumption, a complete industrial system and huge potential for technological innovation.
Specifically, in 2023, China's total electricity consumption was 2.3 times that of the US and its vehicle sales were nearly twice those of the US.
Also, China's crude steel output was 12.6 times that of the US, and its shipbuilding completion volume was more than 70 times that of the US.
With such manufacturing comparisons, the WSJ's "China collapse theory" is doomed to collapse again.
Amid discriminatory hiring practices that some companies in China are seeking younger workers under the age of 35, a political advisor suggested to this year's two sessions that efforts should be made to appropriately relax age restrictions for candidates sitting for civil servant examinations.
Li Zhengguo, director of Sichuan Henghe Xin Law Firm and a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), said the efforts will help resolve age discrimination in the country's job market, while making the suggestion, domestic news site thepaper reported.
Setting the threshold of 35 years old is a recognition mistake, Li said, giving the example of "996" working hour practice by some employers. Over the past several years, workers in some industries are asked to work from 9 am to 9 pm, six days per week.
Ultra-long work hours require workers devote more time to work, causing some companies to discriminately consider that workers under 35 years have more advantages and prefer to hire younger people, he said.
According to Li, the threshold of 35 is against the development trend of society, as the country's total population recorded negative growth in the past two years.
The population in the Chinese mainland recorded negative growth for the first time in 61 years, decreasing by 850,000 in 2022, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
It's worth noting that over the past two years, some Chinese provinces, including Central China's Henan and Hubei provinces, as well as North China's Tianjin municipality, have raised the age threshold for civil service examinations to 40 years old, up from 35, in order to expand access to government jobs.
China will officially kick off the annual two sessions on Monday, one of the most important political gatherings for the year that will set the tone for the country's policy priorities in a wide range of sectors from the economy, diplomacy, military to social development.
The pivotal event is being convened against the backdrop of a complex international situation, rising geopolitical tensions and a year fraught with presidential elections, which cast tremendous uncertainties on global economic outlook. This year marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Internally, China is also embarking on a significant year in the implementation for the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) and a march toward Chinese modernization, an overarching goal under which economic engines are expected to not only rev up but also be driven by "new productive forces."
So the stakes of how the two sessions flesh out a roadmap for China's economic development are high, observers said, as it will also have a far-reaching impact in shaping the global economic and political landscape. China's economic recovery trajectory would also instill stability and predictability into the world, they noted.
A cluster of economic topics are high on the agenda, including GDP growth target, deficit-to-GDP ratio, fiscal and monetary policies as well as employment. Meanwhile, deputies and political advisors told the Global Times that they're keenly gauging on policy elaborations involving boosting private economy, creating "new productive forces," as well as deepening financial market reform, among other things of public concerns.
The second session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), China's top political advisory body, will begin at 3pm on Monday and close on March 10 morning, lasting for six days, Liu Jieyi, spokesperson for the second session of the 14th CPPCC National Committee, said at a press conference on Sunday, one day ahead of its annual session.
The second session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) will open in Beijing on March 5.
Setting key economic goals
Economic issues have been a focal point for political advisors, and it is the opinion of all political advisors that in 2023 the Chinese economy withstood external pressure and overcame internal difficulties, Liu said, noting the economy has been on a general recovery track.
"Looking to the future, the Chinese economy is resilient, has huge potential and vitality and its growth momentum will continue to strengthen and lead to a bright future," Liu noted.
One of the most widely watched economic goals for the upcoming two sessions is the GDP target, as China, while sustaining a good economic recovery momentum, still faces a bunch of downward pressures ranging from insufficient demand, weakening social expectation and property downturn that could weigh on economic development prospect this year.
Deputies and economists said the GDP narrative will set a beacon for this year's economic work and accompanying measures. It also sheds light on how the Chinese government makes a comprehensive calculus on balancing off a number of goals including stabilizing employment, preventing risk, improving people's livelihoods, lifting social expectation, while coordinating with targets outlined in the 14th Five-year Plan (2021-25).
Observers said the GDP target could be set around 5 percent, which will show the policymakers' "pragmatism and bottom-line thinking." It will also take into account the growth targets put forward at the local two sessions since the beginning of the year.
Also, "it is important that the GDP growth goal should be set almost the same as last year's level, or even higher, for the world's second-largest economy to continue a high-quality development path," Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Sunday.
The 14th Five-year Plan (2021-25) stated that the country will "keep the average annual growth of GDP within an appropriate range, and set annual targets for GDP growth on the basis of actual condition."
"We're closely watching the government's attitude toward the progress of the 14th Five-year Plan (2021-25) … We also expect the government to take the climate target seriously, and more green policies are expected in the next two years," Xing Zhaopeng, a senior China Strategist at ANZ Research, said in a note sent to the Global Times over the weekend. Xing stressed that China's economic goals will add certainty to the world economy, and China will continue to be the largest contributor to global GDP this year.
How China will phrase its fiscal and monetary policy direction is another focus on the market's radar. Xing expects the deficit-to-GDP ratio to be set at 3 percent.
Some economists also predicted that this year's budget deficit could hover around 3.5 percent to 4 percent, with doubled-down fiscal stimulus amid the country's low interest rate environment and a near-end to global interest rate hikes cycle that could see drops in borrowing costs.
"This year will be a transitional year for the massive implementation of supportive policies, both in macro fronts and subtle areas that are conducive to fine tune the country's economic structure, after a new cabinet lineup was unveiled during last year's two sessions," Cao said. He added that China also undertook a reform on Party and state institutions last year, which signals that policies from the central government will be carried out more effectively and swiftly.
Tian Yun, a veteran economist based in Beijing, told the Global Times on Sunday that with the presidential elections in the US and some other 60 countries this year, as well as lingering geopolitical tensions that wreak havoc on the global supply chain, the global situation may become even more complicated this year.
"The volatile external environment calls for Chinese policymakers to maintain a strategic focus, to properly arrange economic work throughout the year and stay committed to executing them, so as to instill confidence and lift up market expectation," Tian noted.
China's economy grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year in 2023, staying above last year's official GDP target of around 5 percent. The deficit-to-GDP ratio is estimated to reach 3.8 percent last year.
Under the spotlight
Deputies and political advisors also expect this year's Government Work Report to expound the country's plan to create "new productive forces" - a new concept proposed by Chinese top leader in September and has emerged as a buzzword of heated discussion, with broad ramification for the Chinese modernization in the years to come.
"Creating 'new productive forces' is a decisive step in the economy's high-quality development course, against the backdrop of China's economic transition and sweeping tech revolution. It maps out a blueprint on the growth of strategic newly emerging and futuristic industries, and offers guidance into the intelligence, digitalization drive of traditional industries," Guo Guoping, a deputy to the NPC, and chief scientist of Origin Quantum, told the Global Times.
In the face of white-hot global tech race and the US-led relentless decoupling push against China's tech industry, creating "new productive forces" is also essential for China to make breakthroughs in cutting-edge tech sectors, such as artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor and quantum computing, and achieve more self-sufficiency in certain foreign-dominated areas, the deputies said.
"The creation of 'new productive forces' will inject new impetus underpinning steady progresses in Chinese modernization," Qi Xiangdong, chairman of Qi An Xin Technology Group and a member of the National Committee of CPPCC, told the Global Times on Friday. According to his proposal shared with the Global Times, Qi urged private firms to play a pioneering role in facilitating the coordinating development of the tech industrial chain.
Also, a number of motions and proposals this year feature predominately on shoring up the confidence of the private economy. According to Liu, facilitating the expansion of the private economy is a tradition of CPPCC duty performance, and the political advisory body will also hold briefings on key issues involving "clearing up default payments to private companies."
According to a proposal the China National Democratic Construction Association (CNDCA) shared with the Global Times, the political party suggested the Chinese policymakers to speed up the formulation of private economy promotion law to improve legislation system concerning the private economy. CNDCA is one of China's eight noncommunist political parties.
"The private economy constitutes an important driver of employment and a non-negligible force in China's economic upgrade. In recent years, the vigor of the private economy has slipped to some extent due to both internal and external environment. It would be a much-needed boost to the confidence of private entrepreneurs if there's a law that guarantees equal market position of private firms as State-owned and foreign companies," Liu Yonghao, a member of the National Committee of CPPCC and chairman of New Hope Group, told the Global Times.
In addition, deepening reforms in key sectors are in the laser focus. Among them, how Chinese regulators respond to investors' concerns and push for deeper reforms in the equities market has garnered much limelight, amid recent turbulent ride of the stock market.
Authorities should conduct a series of reforms targeting the underlying systems of the capital market in line with the "market-oriented, law-based and internationalized" standard, in a bid to build the foundation for a healthy investment environment in China in the long run, Tian Xuan, vice president of the Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance, told the Global Times.
"We are interested to see how much emphasis will be placed on improving the business environment for foreign firms," EUCCC president Jens Eskelund told the Global Times, expressing hope for stepped-up efforts in the country's opening-up.
Chinese officials have called on Chinese and US businesses to expand cooperation and help stabilize bilateral ties, as US companies continue to express great interest in the Chinese market; however, Chinese officials are also firmly countering Washington's slander and crackdowns against China.
This is the current dynamic between China and the US in terms of economic and trade ties, and it will remain the situation for the foreseeable future, as Washington has adopted a "two-faced" approach in both seeking to stabilize ties as well as cracking down on China in areas where the US is lagging behind, experts said on Sunday.
On Friday, when addressing the annual appreciation dinner of the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China) in Beijing, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng called for business circles of the two countries to consolidate the foundation of friendship and mutual trust and expand areas of cooperation, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Saturday.
Han said that the Chinese economy has strong resilience, potential and vast space, and new drivers and advantages are still growing, China will unswervingly expand opening-up at a high level, and it welcomes more US companies to invest and develop in China.
Such a welcoming attitude has also been echoed by many Chinese officials amid increasing interactions between officials and businesses of the two countries in recent months. In the latest positive engagement, senior Chinese officials met with a visiting US delegation led by Suzanne P. Clark, president and CEO of the US Chamber of Commerce (USCC). During meetings, Chinese officials welcomed US businesses to invest and do business in China, while also firmly pushing back against "decoupling" and "small yard and high fence" approaches.
Many US business leaders have expressed opposition to economic decoupling. In a statement sent to the Global Times, the USCC said that in meetings with Chinese leaders during the trip, it "emphasized its longstanding support of mutually beneficial US-China commercial ties that do not compromise US national security interests" and "underscored that decoupling is not an option."
However, the USCC statement also contained claims that have been widely hyped by US officials and media outlets, including "heavy-handed commercial pressure tactics, digital protectionism and intellectual property theft."
The need for the US business community to strike a delicate balance between pursuing win-win cooperation and supporting the US government's efforts to protect "national security" underscored the chilling effect of Washington's efforts to contain China's rise, even though the US officially and publicly repeats pledges not to seek to decouple from or contain China, experts said.
"The 'two-faced' US approach when it comes to economic and trade ties with China has been very clear. It has always been seeking to cooperate in areas where it needs cooperation, while cracking down on China where it cannot compete," Gao Lingyun, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.
Such an approach has also been vividly displayed over the past few days. At the AmCham China dinner on Friday, US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said that "the [US] wants to keep trade going forward with China. We are not seeking to decouple these two major global economies."
However, almost at the same time as Burns uttered those words, the US government announced on Friday that it was opening an investigation into whether Chinese vehicle imports pose national security risks to the US, which could lead to restrictions or even bans on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), according to Reuters.
In what has been widely described on Chinese social media as absurd, clichéd "China threat" claims against Chinese EVs, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo even suggested that China could, "with the flip of a switch," make millions of cars "disabled."
"Forget about how few Chinese EVs are in the US… we didn't know until now how powerful Chinese EVs are," a Chinese auto industry analyst surnamed Zhang told the Global Times in a mocking tone.
"But think about it again, with so many Tesla cars in China, does it mean Washington can also realize this 'with the flip of a switch'?"
Chinese officials have harshly criticized unfounded US claims against Chinese EVs.
In responding to the planned US probe, Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Friday that China's door has been open to global auto companies, including US auto companies, but by contrast, the US has engaged in trade protectionism and set up obstacles including discriminatory subsidy policies to obstruct access to the US market by China-made cars.
"Such acts of politicizing economic and trade issues will only hinder the development of the US auto industry itself," Mao said.
Gao said that China has been very clear and consistent about its approach toward the US, that it aims to boost mutually beneficial cooperation with the US, but will also counter crackdowns by the US whenever necessary.
"Even when we are fighting back against the US crackdown measures, our ultimate goal is to ensure win-win cooperation," Gao said. A large number of mainland tourists are expected to flock to the city during the Qingming Festival holidays in early April and the May Day holidays in May, according to local media reports.
"In 2018, the IVS tourists, who accounted for more than 60 percent of the total number of mainland visitors arriving in Hong Kong, represented an important force in driving the business of tourism-related industries in Hong Kong," HKSAR Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism Kevin Yeung said after the two cities were included in the IVS, as shown on the website of the HKSAR government.
It is believed that Xi'an and Qingdao, each having a population of more than 10 million, will bring more high-value-added overnight tourists to Hong Kong, said Yeung.
The IVS was implemented on July 28, 2003 in four cities - Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and Foshan - in South China's Guangdong Province, neighboring Hong Kong.
In a recent government notice, China has urged cities and local governments to prevent property market fluctuations with balanced plans of housing supply and demand, and to craft yearly housing development plans for 2024 and 2025.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on Tuesday, asking all cities to assess local housing demands, craft yearly housing development plans based on their demographic and market changes, reflecting a proactive approach to addressing the challenges faced by the real estate sector.
Cities are encouraged to assess local residential housing demands accurately, preventing ups and downs in the property market.
Central to the notice is the annual housing development plans from 2024 to 2030. The plans are expected to specify property supply, structure, and location of housing and land, along with a reasonable estimation of the financing needs for local developers. A detailed approach to affordable housing supply is also underscored, with the aim to foster a balanced and healthy real estate market.
Highlighting the importance of the development plans, the notice requires cities integrate factors such as economic growth, demographic change and industry distribution into mapping their housing strategies.
The ministry places a strong emphasis on affordable housing supply, combining governmental support for basic housing needs with market-driven solutions for varied residential preferences. Cities are urged to accurately study local housing demands.
Local governments are also urged to prioritize the integration of housing development plans with their land use planning, ensuring a cohesive approach to overall urban development.
In 2024, China introduced multiple measures to stabilize its real estate sector and boost the industry's growth. With the establishment of real estate financing coordination mechanisms in 214 cities of 29 provinces, local governments now play a pivotal role in recommending projects for financial support, facilitating over 160 billion yuan ($22.2 billion) in credit to real estate projects under the initiative, according to official data.
China's central bank acted aggressively to cut the benchmark five-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 25 basis points to 3.95 percent on Tuesday, marking the largest rate rollback since the LPR system was introduced in 2019 which will ramp up market demand for long-term loans and propel the country's overall economic development.
The rate reduction, together with a recent package of pro-growth macro policy announcements, will fuel up two important segments of the economy - the real estate and the stock market. The move will continue to bode well for home-buying and accelerate Chinese equities trading.
With substantive monetary policy easing, market confidence and investor morale have been revitalized and are now on the upswing, as property dealers said that they have received rising visits by potential home-buyers, and China's A-share market has staged a rare eight-day rallying streak by Friday.
Flamboyant investors anticipate the streak will continue into this week. The Shanghai composite stock index soared more than 369 points or nearly 14 percent from February 6, a stellar market performance that reflects the rapidly rising enthusiasm of the investors and the society's rallying confidence in the broad economy. The monetary authorities' intensified effort to phase in a market-oriented, law-based and internationalized oversight system is certain to guide China's capital market into a new era of healthy growth.
Investors are now expecting more encouraging news to come in order to shore up the economic growth.
The annual "two sessions" - the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) - will open in Beijing in early March, and economists and analysts forecast more fiscal stimulus plans will be announced, targeting at investment in infrastructure, technology innovation, manufacturing upgrade and broad social programs, which will further buoy market confidence.
Throughout 2024, capital investment and domestic retail spending will continue to drive China's economic growth. Fiscal policy may likely take the lead, accompanied by firm support from monetary easing, a stabilizing property market, a reactivated capital market, and targeted growths in high-end manufacturing and the expected boom in new-quality productive forces.
Many Chinese economic research institutions and investment houses say the country will aim for around 5 percent GDP growth this year, which may seem like a daunting job in the backdrop of contracting global demand and economic gloom, but highly attainable provided China adheres to the ongoing growth-reinforcing policy choices.
Tuesday's 25-bps five-year interest rate cut, making the home mortgage rate approaching historical lows, is exquisitely heartening for the vast home buyers as they will need to pay substantially less in mortgages. The steep cut will effectively decrease the cost for buying residential properties, and ease the repayment pressure on existing home loans. By all metrics, it is of great importance to enliven the real estate sector from the pandemic-induced doldrums.
The move will also guide commercial banks in China to lower long-term borrowing costs faced by all types of enterprises, the private businesses in particular, which will help stimulate their demand for credit and fire up overall economic activity.
With the exception of a few regions that are still having their first-home mortgage rates above 4 percent, the majority of local home markets will be capable of enjoying a lending rate of below 4 percent, among the lowest rates in the world. In comparison, the average 15-year to 30-year mortgage rates in the US comes in at a range from 6.7 to 7.3 percent.
The rate cut will further inspire buying sentiment in the property market. Major Chinese cities would welcome a post-Spring Festival pickup in property sales, considering the positive effects of the measures already introduced in the first-tier and second-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Suzhou and Guangzhou to lessen previously administrative curbs on property purchases.
At the same time, government departments at all levels are working together to revive the all-importance property market. An urban real estate financing coordination mechanism has been set up across more than 100 cities to strengthen and support the financing needs of real estate projects. According to official statistics, credit to real estate projects exceeding 160 billion yuan ($22.3 billion) has been extended under the mechanisms.
This should remove a major roadblock restraining real estate sector growth as a "white list" of housing developers has been announced and the eligible developers will be able to get bank loans at much easier terms - a significant step aimed at helping them build and deliver pre-sold homes and recapitalize their financial books promptly. More than 8,000 real estate projects nationwide were eligible for property financing, according to data revealed by China's five biggest commercial banks.
The real estate sector has played an outsized role in the Chinese economy. A reviving real estate sector, coupled with a rallying stock market, will strongly accelerate overall social confidence and the ordinary households' sense of wealth gain, which will ratchet up consumer appetite for shopping big-ticket items like cars and home appliances as well as leisure and travel spending. As a result, the overall economy will receive a strong boost in 2024.
China's new home prices in first-tier cities declined 0.3 percent in January in month-on-month terms, narrowing 0.1 percentage point from that of December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Friday. That in secondary markets edged down by 1 percent in January compared with December, also narrowing 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Observers said the moderate decline sends signals that the real estate market is gradually "stabilizing" in January, from its lukewarm status last year. They also voiced confidence that the market will embark on a firm recovery trajectory this year, fueled by a number of supportive policies including easing purchasing curbs, interest rate cuts and restoring market confidence.
In line with trends in first-tier cities, new and secondary home prices in second- and third-tier cities reported a fall in January, yet the drops have mostly tapered off from previous months.
Out of the 60 major cities, a total of 11 cities record new home sales price gain in January, compared with seven in December, the first time in almost a year that the number of cities that see soaring new property price shows an increase.
"The index is of landmark significance as it shows that housing demand is now gradually being released, and adjustments on home prices could be near the end," Yan Yuejin, research director at Shanghai-based E-house China R&D Institute, said in a note sent to the Global Times on Friday.
Yan said that the freshly released housing data in January provide a number of positive signals underscoring that pressures hang over the real estate market have been eased to a certain extent and are developing in a more stabilized way, which is also "conducive to shoring up homebuyers' confidence."
China's central bank on Tuesday cut its benchmark mortgage reference rate by 25 basis points (bps), the largest one-time rate reduction in years, in a renewed effort to stimulate credit demand and revive the property market.
In recent months, major Chinese cities, including Guangzhou, Suzhou, Zhengzhou and Shanghai, have moved to relax curbs on property buying. Starting late last year, the Chinese government reportedly began to draw up a "white list" of real estate companies that are eligible for concessional loans and other types of financial support from commercial banks.
Industry observers said they're optimistic on the long-term outlook as market further improves. They also expected more policies to be rolled out to "guide market expectation," and inject new dynamics to both the demand and supply sides of the market.
In 2023, China's property investment plunged 9.6 percent year-on-year to 11.1 trillion yuan ($1.64 trillion), while sales of commercial apartments also slumped 6.5 percent year-on-year to 11.7 trillion yuan, NBS data showed.
The chunyun or Spring Festival travel rush for 2024 - the world's largest annual human migration - officially starts on Friday, and is expected to set a new record of 9 billion passenger trips during the 40-day travel peak. From jam-packed transportation hubs to the hustle and bustle seen in markets nationwide, the anticipated booming Chinese New Year holidays are poised to continue the country's steady recovery while ushering in a lively 2024.
At the Beijing Capital International Airport on Thursday, crowds of tourists were seen in the departure hall, children and parents were holding hands waiting for checked luggage at the counter, and Year of the Dragon stickers were also pasted on glass doors, adding to the coming Chinese Lunar New Year atmosphere.
The airport will see 7.2 million passenger trips during chunyun, a growth of more than 60 percent from the same period of 2023, the airport said on Thursday, adding that overseas passenger flow will reach 1.41 million passenger trips following the implementation of visa reciprocity policies between China and many countries.
The scene witnessed by the Global Times at the airport is just a snapshot illustrating the brisk personnel flow nationwide at one of the busiest times of the year in China. Observers expected the travel rush to boost consumption for the upcoming holidays, which will inject fresh vitality and bolster the country's economic progress in 2024.
Flourishing consumption
A retired white-collar worker surnamed Yin from Southwest China's Chongqing Municipality recently completed a self-driving road trip in South China's Hainan Province with her family. Yin told the Global Times on Thursday that she had already experienced a tourism boom with crowds of visitors and packed restaurants even before the holidays officially kicked off, adding that the well-constructed roads and convenient infrastructure facilities have elevated the traveling experience.
Propelled by the record-high personnel flow and China's steady economic recovery, both domestic and international tourism is set to become major driving forces spurring consumption.
China and Singapore on Thursday agreed on mutual visa exemption which will officially come into effect on February 9, 2024 - the eve of the Chinese New Year, as ordinary passport holders from both sides will be able to enter each other's countries without visa requirements for activities including tourism for 30 days.
Searches for hotels in Singapore on Chinese online travel platform Qunar.com surged four times after the two countries announced the decision, the company told the Global Times on Thursday. Meanwhile, Tongcheng Travel told the Global Times that Singapore-related searches rose by more than 340 percent on the platform within an hour after the visa-free policy announcement.
Domestic tourism is also thriving, represented by the sparkling ice-snow trips in popular cities such as Harbin in Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province. Bookings for products related to winter tourism on Trip.com for the holidays increased by more than 10 times year-on-year, the company told the Global Times in a recent statement.
The record-high chunyun reflected China's rapid development in transportation construction amid its advancing economic recovery, Jiang Yiyi, deputy head of the School of Leisure Sports and Tourism at Beijing Sport University, told the Global Times on Thursday.
Jiang emphasized that activities related to the cultural sector such as visiting museums will also play a significant role in promoting consumption.
In addition, consumption themed around the Chinese New Year's holidays has also been jacked up. Restaurants have been busy taking bookings for traditional Spring Festival reunion dinners, while e-commerce platforms saw sales surging as consumers stocked up on holiday necessities, according to media reports.
Among the 9 billion passenger trips, around 1.8 billion will be made through rail, road, aviation and water transportation, while the remaining 7.2 billion trips are expected to be self-driving trips, according to recent data released by the Ministry of Transport.
China's railway system already saw a pre-Spring Festival ticket sales peak with 61.08 million tickets for chunyun sold since January 12, a year-on-year increase of 159 percent, China State Railway Group Co said in a statement sent to the Global Times on Wednesday.
Amid the expected record-breaking chunyun, domestic carriers have ramped up efforts to ensure transportation capacity.
Air China said on Tuesday that it plans to arrange 67,691 flights during the 40-day travel peak with an average of 1,693 flights per day, an increase of 32 percent compared with 2019 and 40.6 percent compared with 2023. Meanwhile, four homegrown C919 aircraft from China Eastern Airlines will also be serving the travel rush. The four planes will fly routes between Beijing and Shanghai, and Shanghai and Chengdu in Southwest China's Sichuan Province, the first time the aircraft is being used for the Spring Festival travel.
Vital momentum to last in 2024
Consumption played an indispensable role in bolstering China's economic growth in 2023, with the final consumption contributing to 82.5 percent of GDP growth, official data showed. Experts noted that the momentum will extend into 2024 with optimistic outlooks, while the consumption boom for the Chinese New Year holidays will become an essential engine driving economic growth in the first quarter.
The recently released GDP data from multiple Chinese provinces and cities have showcased the uplifting achievements realized nationwide, while last year's considerable economic growth rate will lay a solid foundation for this year's economic expectations, Cong Yi, a professor at the Tianjin School of Administration, told the Global Times on Thursday.
Shanghai's GDP expanded by 5 percent year-on-year in 2023, while Guangdong's GDP passed 13 trillion yuan ($1.83 trillion) for the first time, according to the "report cards" released by the local governments.
Meanwhile, Cong highlighted the culture-infused tourism boom as an example of the country's continuous upgrading in consumption structure, further adding to optimistic expectations for the coming year.
In 2023, the consumption sector, especially the services industry, contributed primarily to the GDP growth rather than the primary and secondary industries, Cao Heping, a professor of economics at Peking University, told the Global Times on Thursday.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the growth of retail sales of services increased by 20 percent year-on-year last year, while the catering sector achieved a revenue exceeding 5 trillion yuan for the first time.
Cao noted that developing consumption-related investment along with relevant industries will be a major focal point for China's economic transformation.
Cao said that holiday consumption is set to hugely boost GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024. He added that if the GDP growth rate for the first quarter exceeds 5.2 percent and can get close to 5.5 percent, then the growth rate for 2024 is very like to approach 5.5 percent, higher than the estimate of 4.6 percent projected by some foreign institutions.
The world's second-largest economy posted a GDP growth of 5.2 percent for 2023, successfully meeting the previously set annual target and aligning with market forecasts.
